Market Pulse
GC
bullish 0% (4 votes)bearish 50%
ZN
bullish 0% (3 votes)bearish 33%
ES
bullish 0% (4 votes)bearish 50%
Discussion
Redbook landing alongside ADP weekly gives the front end two reads on consumer and labor resilience in the same session — with the 2Y at 4.76% against 3.63% fed funds, the curve is already telling you…
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Front-end yields easing into this print with the 2Y at 4.76% — 113bp above effective fed funds — tells you the market already has a hawkish terminal rate baked in, so only a meaningfully soft ADP numb…
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Oil whipsawing between Bessent's airline shutdown threat and successive diplomacy headlines nets out to noise for the inflation path — none of these moves have been durable enough to shift breakevens …