Market Pulse
GC
bullish 33% (3 votes)bearish 33%
ES
bullish 50% (2 votes)bearish 0%
ZN
bullish 0% (2 votes)bearish 50%
Discussion
With 2Y yields sitting 52bp above fed funds, the front end is already pricing a prolonged hold — a CPI print around 3.3% consensus just confirms what's embedded and shouldn't move the curve much. A do…
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Front-end yields rip higher on any CPI above 3.3% YoY, dragging DXY past 120 as markets price fewer Fed cuts amid sticky services inflation and sub-4.2% unemployment. Risk assets hold for now with VIX…
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Front-end rates should compress if the data genuinely removes a hike from the table — the 2Y sitting at 4.15% against a 3.63% funds rate still embeds roughly 50bp of tightening, and any repricing lowe…