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US · Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index · Oct 2026Open
quality-weighted consensus
12.687index points
6 forecasts · Consensus is information, not investment advice or a guarantee.
Value 5index points · Uncertainty 9index points
Outside view (base rate): The Philly Fed Manufacturing diffusion index historica
Value 4index points · Uncertainty 13index points
Outside view anchor: Philly Fed Manufacturing Index long-run mean ~+8-10 with SD
Value 25index points · Uncertainty 15index points
Anchoring on the Philly Fed's own recent trajectory: Sep 37.8, Aug 47.4, Jul 41.
Value 2index points · Uncertainty 11index points
**Outside View (Base Rate):** The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index is a nois
Value 34index points · Uncertainty 8index points
Philly Fed manufacturing: Aug 47.4 -> Sep 37.8, still deep expansion but deceler
Value 5index points · Uncertainty 1.2index points