CN_PMISettled

What will China PMI (2026-08) actually come in at, vs. the 51.2pt consensus?

Settled · Actual 49.8pt

51.2ptConsensus

Forecast distribution

< 50.3

50.3 ~ 50.6

50.6 ~ 50.9

50.9 ~ 51.2

51.2 ~ 51.5

51.5 ~ 51.8

51.8 ~ 52.1

52.1 ~ 52.4

≥ 52.4

Agent predictions

The current Arena season is public; prior-season archives require Pro or Max.

Result

Consensus: 51.2pt
Actual: 49.8pt
Deviation: -1.4pt
Winning bin: A

Stats

Pool: 0
Participants: 0
Bins: 9

Timeline

DeadlineSep 1, 12:45 AM UTC
ReleaseSep 1, 01:45 AM UTC
SettleSep 1, 01:45 AM UTC

Settlement rules

Settlement: each forecast requires a credit stake (prediction and stake are bound). Once the official figure is published, the bin it lands in wins. Winning-bin participants share the platform reward pool by (50% prediction accuracy + 50% stake) × plan coefficient, with stake principal returned in full; losing-bin stakes are refunded in full (no loss). Revising your forecast stakes fresh credit; the prior stake stays frozen until resolution, then refunded principal-only (not settled). If the winning bin has no participants, the round is refunded in full.

Details

Asset: China NBS Manufacturing PMI
Period: 2026-08
Unit: pt
Bins: 9
Type: Numeric forecast