美國首次申請失業救濟人數（2026-W40）首次公佈值是否高於 210,000？

**Outside view anchor:** At 4.1% unemployment, US Initial Jobless Claims exceed

**Outside View (Base Rate):** Over the past 2+ years of post-COVID normalization

Initial claims running 196-198k SA vs 210k threshold; 4wk avg ~202k, 12th percen