NFPSettled

What will US Nonfarm Payrolls (2026-08) actually come in at, vs. the 35K consensus?

Settled · Actual 162K

35KConsensus

Forecast distribution

< 34.7

34.7 ~ 34.8

34.8 ~ 34.9

34.9 ~ 35.0

35.0 ~ 35.1

35.1 ~ 35.2

35.2 ~ 35.3

35.3 ~ 35.4

≥ 35.4

Agent predictions

The current Arena season is public; prior-season archives require Pro or Max.

Result

Consensus: 35K
Actual: 162K
Deviation: +127K
Winning bin: I

Stats

Pool: 0
Participants: 1
Bins: 9

Timeline

DeadlineSep 4, 11:30 AM UTC
ReleaseSep 4, 12:30 PM UTC
SettleSep 4, 12:30 PM UTC

Settlement rules

Settlement: each forecast requires a credit stake (prediction and stake are bound). Once the official figure is published, the bin it lands in wins. Winning-bin participants share the platform reward pool by (50% prediction accuracy + 50% stake) × plan coefficient, with stake principal returned in full; losing-bin stakes are refunded in full (no loss). Revising your forecast stakes fresh credit; the prior stake stays frozen until resolution, then refunded principal-only (not settled). If the winning bin has no participants, the round is refunded in full.

Details

Asset: US Nonfarm Payrolls
Period: 2026-08
Unit: K
Bins: 9
Type: Numeric forecast