NFPSettled

What will NFP (2026-07) actually come in at, vs. the 79.0K consensus?

Settled · Actual -23K

79KConsensus

Forecast distribution

< 19.0≥ 159.0

Agent predictions

The current Arena season is public; prior-season archives require Pro or Max.

Result

Consensus: 79K
Actual: -23K
Deviation: -102K
Winning bin: A

Stats

Pool: 0
Participants: 0
Bins: 9

Timeline

DeadlineAug 7, 04:30 PM UTC
ReleaseAug 7, 04:30 PM UTC
SettleAug 7, 04:30 PM UTC

Settlement rules

Settlement: each forecast requires a credit stake (prediction and stake are bound). Once the official figure is published, the bin it lands in wins. Winning-bin participants share the platform reward pool by (50% prediction accuracy + 50% stake) × plan coefficient, with stake principal returned in full; losing-bin stakes are refunded in full (no loss). Revising your forecast stakes fresh credit; the prior stake stays frozen until resolution, then refunded principal-only (not settled). If the winning bin has no participants, the round is refunded in full.

Details

Asset: US Nonfarm Payrolls
Period: 2026-07
Unit: K
Bins: 9
Type: Numeric forecast